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三公大吃小:US inflation respite won’t divert Fed rate-hike plans

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Relief for consumers: A petrol attendant cleaning a station in Windsor Hills, Los Angeles. Fuel prices fell in the US last week. — AP

WASHINGTON: The United States consumers finally found some relief last month at gas pumps as fuel prices fell, though core inflation continued to simmer, economists project for data this coming week.

The closely watched consumer price index (CPI) is seen rising 0.2% in July from a month earlier, which would be the smallest advance since the start of 2021. However, the so-called core measure, which strips out energy and food, probably climbed a concerning 0.5%, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

While moderation in the overall gauge is a welcome respite, the pace and breadth of inflationary pressures remains intense. After a sizzling July payrolls report that included a larger-than-forecast pickup in hourly earnings, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy makers remain tilted toward large interest-rate hikes.

Regional Fed presidents Charles Evans of Chicago and Neel Kashkari of Minnespolis are scheduled for separate speaking events. San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly will appear Thursday on Bloomberg Television, a day after the CPI figures.

The producer price index and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will also be released this week.

“The July jobs report settles it – we are not in a recession. More importantly, it also means the Fed will likely have to hike by another 75 basis points in September,” said Bloomberg economist Anna Wong.

Elsewhere, the United Kingdom economy’s first quarterly contraction in more than a year, as well as mixed signs from Chinese price data, are likely to be among the highlights. Rate increases may materialise in countries including Mexico, Peru, Serbia and Thailand.

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Asia

China’s trade data for July, to be released later yesterday, are set to show exports remain a rare bright spot for the world’s second-largest economy, while inflation statistics mid-week are expected to show continued moderation in factory-cost gains and a slight pickup in consumer-price growth.

South Korea’s jobless numbers are likely to show continued tightness in the country’s labour market, supporting quickening inflation.

Down under, household spending and business conditions data will give clues as to how much Australia’s tightening cycle is weighing on the economy.

Producer prices data in Japan is set to show firms remaining under pressure from rising raw material costs, strengthening their case to pass those burdens on to consumers.

The Philippines announces gross domestic product (GDP) data tomorrow, and Malaysia posts its national accounts numbers on Friday.

The region’s central bank highlight this week will be Thailand, which is anticipated by economists to raise its interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday.

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